Articles & perspectives

MARKET UPDATE & OUTLOOK FOR 2019

JANUARY 2, 2019 MARKET UPDATE & OUTLOOK FOR 2019 Earnings and economic data remained positive in the U.S. throughout 2018, posting an annual growth rate of 3.4% as of September 2018.  Global growth began to slow in late spring of 2018, but still posted a 1.6% growth rate for the Eurozone and approximately 6% for China. Despite the backdrop of strong economic data, 2018 experienced widespread negative market performance that hit virtually all asset classes except cash and short-term Treasuries. (see table below)  The dismal performance from both US and global stocks, bonds, real estate and commodities in 2018 was a result of slower US and global growth, rising interest rates, rising debt levels, significant policy errors from the US, China and central banks, and overly optimistic and unrealistic expectations by investors who pushed valuations too

10 POPULAR STOCKS THAT WOULD BE HIT HARD IF TRUMP STARTED A TRADE WAR

Apple, Caterpillar and Wynn Resorts are businesses that could be especially hurt if other countries or trade blocs retaliate. President Trump’s discussion on tariffs has the capacity to initiate a trade war. Surely there’ll be plenty of commotion, as is customary with Trump, and in our investigation, the likelihood of a trade war with dire consequences isn’t large. Nonetheless, it’s only prudent to take preventative actions. Let’s explore using a graph, I shall share the titles of 10 popular stocks which would be in danger if there’s a trade warfare. Read:Here is why the stock exchange is accepting the Trump tariffs so challenging (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-why-the-stock-market-took-the-trump-tariff-announcement-so-hard-2018-03-01) Chart Click here here (https://thearorareport.com/chart-stock-market-trump-trade-war-03022018) to your annotated chart of S&P 500 ETF (SPY). Similar conclusions could be drawn from the graphs of Dow Jones Industrial Average , DJIA ETF (DIA) and

Impact Of The New Tax Law On Financial Planning And Retirement in 2018

Those working in retirement as sole-proprietors or LLCs can deduct 20% of their business income but their full income will count against the Medicare PartB premium threshold. The new year provides a package of changes to federal income tax laws which go into effect. Here are the salient changes which impact financial planning and retirement. Unless you’ve been consumed in of the bowl games, you’re likely aware there are no longer $ 4,050 exemptions to your partner, you and your kids, although the deduction has approximately doubled to $ 24,000 for joint filers. There is a2,000 per child tax credit with a at $400k AGI, and the era deductions still apply. If you’ve been itemizing and live in a high tax state, property tax deduction and your joint state income is capped at $10,000. The

Trump Tax Plan – Key Points

Trump Tax Plan – 8 Key Income Tax Provisions: 1) It eliminates personal exemptions which could result in families with many children paying higher taxes 2) It eliminates most itemized deductions such as moving expenses, alimony payments, etc. 3) It limits the deduction on mortgage interest to the first $750K of the loan and interest on home equity line of credits can no longer be deducted 4) Taxpayers can deduct up to $10K in state and local taxes.   They must choose between property taxes, and income or sales taxes. 5)  It expands the deduction for medical expenses 6)  It repeals Obamacare tax on those without health insurance in 2019 7) it doubles the estate tax exemption from 11.2 million to 22.4 million and  it keeps the alternative minimum tax but increases the exemption 8) it
Predictions for 2018

Predictions for 2018

2017 was a good year for the buy-and-hold investor where broad-based gains were captured across all major US & global equity markets. In addition, volatility hit historically low levels, which was a far step away from the past several years where investors have been bombarded with above-average volatility. As we enter 2018, practically all major US and global economic indicators are positive and no signs of recession exist in the near future. The good news is that the US & global economies are expanding, the bad news is that all this positive news is already priced into the markets. Therefore, 2018 will likely experience higher volatility than 2017 with one or two corrections possibly up to 15%. However, I do believe we will likely end the year higher in the US markets and especially emerging
US Dollar & Small Caps Could Surge With Tax Reform Being Passed

US Dollar & Small Caps Could Surge With Tax Reform Being Passed

US Dollar has been flatlined for 3 years and steadily declining throughout 2017. The House has currently passed their version of a reform bill and the Senate Finance Committee passed its bill on to the full Senate for a likely vote this week. Indications are that the Senate will pass its bill, triggering the reconciliation process between the two Houses of Congress.  It is expected that this process will be difficult, but many experts believe a compromise bill will be passed during the first quarter of 2018. If so, this may thrust the US Dollar above its 12-month resistance and head higher. In addition, the passing the Tax Reform bill may also push small caps higher, especially if the US Dollar appreciates.  Coincidentally, small-caps just broke above their 10-year rising resistance level, a bullish indicator: